Edmonton and the Groundhog's Day of Expectation

by Brett Smith

When the Sabres look across the ice tonight, they'll see the cautionary tale of expectations built on a foundation of high draft picks. When they look in the stands, they'll see thousands of Bill Murrays.

Long before Sabres fans ever thought of  #EmbracetheTank the Oilers were stockpiling No.1 picks like Iran stockpiled nuclear reactors for "peaceful purposes". Despite being far ahead in the arms race for top Canadian Juniors talent, the Copper and Blue have yet to challenge the oligarchs atop the Western Conference, condemning their fans to a Groundhog Day of bottom finishes that cruelly dispense hope with the prospect of another high draft pick.

Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Nail Yakupov and Conor McDavid have all been the first to pull on an NHL sweater in their respective draft years, but each has yet to set the league on fire. McDavid seems the most likely to do so, but a season-shortening shoulder injury has Edmonton fans waking up to "I Got You Babe" all over again.

This case study of tanking gone wrong had me looking at Eichel and Reinhart with trepidation. Where had the Oilers faltered? Is there something we could learn? How do you break the cycle and finally walk out of Punxsutawney?

While having high draft picks is nice, the front office hasn't given their young stars blue-chip Top 6 talent or even a competent supporting cast. The result is lining up picks like Yakupov and Hall alongside Bottom Sixers like Teddy Purcell and Benoit Puliot. The Oilers have also largely ignored their defensive needs.

This is where the Sabres and Oilers narrative diverges. Murray has seemingly gone to school on the Oilers missteps and given his top picks cover through the acquisitions of Kane and O'Reilly. Fans may have high expectations for Eichel and Reinhart, but the fact that their hockey club isn't relying on their production allows them to grow their game in a more natural environment.

So yes, when the Sabres look across the ice tonight, they'll see a cautionary tale of what they might become, but when the Oilers fans do the same -- they'll likely see themselves retracing the same familiar steps.